A recent study shows that Direct Air Capture (DAC) plants can boost profits and still cut CO₂ by smartly operating during low electricity price periods in volatile power markets — proving that profit-driven, flexible DAC systems can make carbon removal both economically and environmentally sustainable.
Direct Air Capture (DAC) — the technology that literally sucks CO₂ out of thin air — has become one of the hottest topics in climate engineering. With global decarbonization efforts lagging, DAC promises a scalable way to remove billions of tons of carbon dioxide from our atmosphere. But there’s a catch: DAC plants consume enormous amounts of electricity, and electricity prices can swing wildly depending on the power market.
A new study titled “Enhancing Profit and CO₂ Mitigation: Commercial Direct Air Capture Design and Operation with Power Market Volatility” explores a clever question:
Can DAC plants make money and help the planet by adapting to fluctuating power prices?
The researchers modeled how different DAC technologies perform when they play smartly in volatile power markets across California, Texas, and New York.
Their findings? ⚡ Profit-driven DAC operation could make the technology both more financially viable and environmentally effective — if managed wisely.
Imagine giant fans pulling air through filters that trap CO₂. These filters, called sorbents, are then heated to release pure CO₂ for storage or reuse — that’s the DAC cycle.
There are two main types of DAC systems:
But both systems need lots of energy, which means their operating costs depend heavily on electricity prices.
The research team built a high-resolution model (down to 5-minute intervals) to simulate DAC operations across the three U.S. power markets.
They tested four DAC technologies:
| DAC Type | Operation | Key Traits |
|---|---|---|
| MOF (Metal-Organic Framework) | Cyclic | Fast cycles, high flexibility, improving energy efficiency |
| APDES-NFC-FD (AN) | Cyclic | Energy efficient, moderate cost, reliable |
| SI-AEATPMS (SA) | Cyclic | High material cost, long cycles |
| KOH | Continuous | Mature, energy-intensive, expensive |
Each was virtually deployed in California (CAISO), Texas (ERCOT), and New York (NYISO) — three markets with very different climates and power price dynamics.
The goal? Maximize profit while removing as much CO₂ as possible.
Instead of running all day, every day, a profit-driven DAC plant can pause during high-price hours and ramp up when electricity is cheap or even negative (yes, that happens when solar power floods the grid!).
This adaptive strategy doesn’t just save money — it often aligns with low-emission periods, making DAC more climate-friendly.
🌞 For example:
By syncing operations with these patterns, DAC plants can double their profits and still remove significant amounts of CO₂.
Running a DAC plant at full capacity doesn’t always mean better results. Sometimes, less is more.
For instance:
Electricity prices change every few minutes. DAC systems that can react quickly — especially those with shorter cycle times (1–2 hours) — can exploit this volatility to their advantage.
Temperature and humidity affect how well sorbents capture CO₂.
So, location is key — Texas favors KOH, while California suits solid sorbents.
The team developed a “strategic bidding” algorithm, simulating how DAC plants could “bid” for power at certain price thresholds — a realistic way to integrate into actual power markets.
This model cut computational time from hours to seconds while staying 90% as accurate as full-scale optimization models.
The study also explored how government incentives and carbon taxes shape DAC economics.
DAC becomes profitable when selling CO₂ removal credits at around $200–250 per ton.
The U.S. government’s 45Q tax credit ($180/ton) gets close, but a small increase could double CO₂ removal capacity for some technologies.
While carbon taxes encourage cleaner energy for industries, they can hurt DAC operations by raising electricity costs.
Result: plants run less often, remove less CO₂, and make less profit.
✅ The researchers suggest exempting DAC plants from carbon taxes or replacing them with renewable energy certificate (REC) requirements, ensuring that CO₂ removal remains cost-effective and green.
If we want DAC to scale, engineers and policymakers should focus on three main design improvements:
This combination can turn DAC into a “renewable-following” load — soaking up excess solar and wind energy while scrubbing CO₂ from the air.
Flexible DAC systems could play a surprising role in stabilizing power markets:
Imagine a future where DAC plants automatically switch on during sunny afternoons or windy nights, cleaning the air and keeping energy prices stable. 🌬️☀️
This research reframes DAC as not just a carbon removal technology, but a smart player in the power market.
By embracing price volatility, DAC can become:
But it also highlights a deeper truth — profit optimization and climate optimization don’t always align. Policymakers must carefully balance incentives to ensure DAC delivers both economic and environmental wins.
Direct Air Capture holds enormous promise — but success depends on smart integration with energy systems and well-designed incentives.
This study shows that with adaptive, profit-aware operations, DAC plants can thrive in volatile power markets, accelerate decarbonization, and support renewable integration.
In short:
The path to a cleaner planet might just run through the power market. ⚡🌎
🌫️ Direct Air Capture (DAC) - A technology that pulls carbon dioxide (CO₂) directly from the air using machines and special materials called sorbents or solvents. The captured CO₂ can then be stored underground or reused to make fuels, chemicals, or building materials. - More about this concept in the article "Direct Air Capture 🌬️ Just Got More Efficient".
⚡ Power Market - The system where electricity is bought and sold — similar to a stock market but for power. Prices constantly change (every few minutes!) based on how much electricity is available and how much people need.
💨 Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) - Any method that takes CO₂ out of the atmosphere to reduce greenhouse gases and slow down global warming.
💸 Profit-Driven Operation - Running a system — like a DAC plant — in a way that maximizes earnings rather than just running nonstop. For DAC, that means working more when electricity is cheap and pausing when it’s expensive.
🧱 Sorbent / Solvent - The materials used to capture CO₂ molecules from air:
🔁 Adsorption / Desorption - The two main steps in DAC operation:
🔥 Regeneration Energy - The energy required to release and collect the CO₂ after it’s been captured — usually in the form of heat or electricity.
🌞 Duck Curve - A famous pattern seen in solar-powered grids like California’s: electricity demand looks like a duck’s shape, dipping during sunny midday (when solar power is high and prices drop) and peaking in the evening.
💵 Carbon Tax - A fee charged for emitting CO₂ into the atmosphere, designed to encourage cleaner energy use. But for DAC (which removes CO₂), such a tax on electricity can actually be counterproductive.
🌍 45Q Tax Credit - A U.S. government incentive that pays companies for capturing and storing CO₂ — currently $180 per ton for DAC systems. It’s a key financial driver for commercial carbon removal projects.
🔬 Metal–Organic Framework (MOF) - A new class of materials with tiny porous structures that can trap CO₂ molecules efficiently. Think of them as microscopic sponges designed for carbon capture.
🔄 Cycle Time - The duration of one full DAC process — from capturing CO₂ to regenerating the material. Shorter cycles mean the system can adapt faster to changing power prices.
📈 Capacity Factor - The percentage of time a DAC plant actually runs compared to its maximum potential. A 100% capacity factor means it’s always on; a 50% means it runs half the time.
⚖️ Economic–Climate Trade-Off - The balance between making profit and maximizing CO₂ removal. Sometimes, optimizing for money reduces total carbon capture — a central theme of this study.
Source: Zhiyuan Fan, Elizabeth Dentzer, James Glynn, David S. Goldberg, Julio Friedmann, Bolun Xu. Enhancing Profit and CO2 Mitigation: Commercial Direct Air Capture Design and Operation with Power Market Volatility. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2510.12949
From: Columbia University; Princeton University; Energy Systems Modelling Analytics Limited; Carbon Direct.
